27 Nov

Canadian Housing Market Shows Signs of Life

Real Estate Market Update

Posted by: Adriaan Driessen

The Canadian Housing Market Shows Signs of Life
Canadian home sales surged to their highest level in more than two years as the Bank of Canada cut interest rates, bringing buyers back into the market. Home sales rose 7.7% month-over-month (m/m) in October, reaching their highest level since April 2022.

Rising home sales were broadly based, with the Greater Toronto Area and British Columbia’s Lower Mainland recording double-digit increases in October. The buoyant housing demand was likely the result of the surge in new listings in recent months and the fall in mortgage rates arising from the BoC’s easing. The jumbo rate cut, however, was in the last week of October, likely having little bearing on the monthly data released by the Canadian Real Estate Association this morning. Actual monthly housing activity came in 30% stronger than year-ago levels.

New ListingsNew listings posted a 3.5% month-over-month decline in October, although that followed a 4.8% jump in September. Thus, new supply remains at some of the highest levels since mid-2022. The national pullback in October was led by a drop in new supply in the GTA.

With sales rising considerably in October and new listings falling, the national sales-to-new listings ratio tightened to 58%, up from 52% in September. The long-term average for the national sales-to-new listings ratio is 55%, with a sales-to-new listings ratio between 45% and 65%, generally consistent with balanced housing market conditions.

At the end of October 2024,174,458 properties were listed for sale on all Canadian MLS® Systems, up 11.4% from a year earlier but still below historical averages for that time of year.

As of the end of October, there were 3.7 months of inventory nationwide, down from 4.1 months at the end of September and the lowest level in more than a year. The long-term average is 5.1 months of inventory, with a seller’s market below about 3.6 months and a buyer’s market above 6.5 months.

Home Prices

The National Composite MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) inched up 0.1% from August to September; however, small ups and downs aside, the bigger picture is that prices at the national level have remained mostly flat since the beginning of the year.

The non-seasonally adjusted National Composite MLS® HPI stood 3.3% below September 2023, a smaller decline than the 3.9% declines recorded in July and August. Given the price weakness seen towards the end of 2023, negative year-over-year comparisons will likely continue to shrink.

Bottom Line

The strength in home sales in October likely contributes to the expectation that the central bank will cut interest rates by only 25 bps when it meets again on December 11. Of course, their decision will be data-dependent; next week, we will see the October inflation data on Tuesday and retail sales on Friday. The November Labour Force Survey will be released on December 6. The unemployment rate has held steady at 6.5%, and wage inflation remains high. It would take a significant disappointment in these data to trigger another 50 bps cut.

In the meantime, bond yields continue to rise, triggered by the strong Trump victory and the fear that tax cuts and spending increases will boost government debt and deficits. While US long-term yields have risen nearly 80 basis points, Canadian 10-year yields are up less than half that amount. There is an unprecedented gap between economic activity in the US and Canada. The US dollar continues to strengthen, putting downward pressure on the loonie.

Pent-up demand for housing continues to be strong, and the combination of lower short-term interest rates and rising inventories of unsold homes will spur activity as we move into the all-important spring season. By then, the overnight rate, currently 3.75%, could be at least a full percentage point lower.

Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres
25 Oct

RESIDENTIAL MARKET UPDATE

Real Estate Market Update

Posted by: Adriaan Driessen

The Bank of Canada cut the overnight policy rate for the fourth time this year, but this time by a whopping 50 bps.
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Bank of Canada Cuts Policy Rate By 50 BPs
After three consecutive 25 bp rate cuts, the BoC slashed the overnight rate by 50 bps this morning, bringing the policy rate down to 3.75%. The market had priced in 90% odds of a 50 bp move, where consensus coalesced. The combined slower-than-expected GDP growth and back-to-back weak inflation reports solidified the calls for a more significant move. The output gap continues to widen, countering the BoC’s forecast in July, pointing to an even more subdued inflation forecast. A 50 bp cut helps to offset that forecast miss by improving growth prospects faster. Even at 3.75%, monetary policy remains restrictive, as the chart shows below. The overnight rate is 145 bps above the September core inflation measure, and headline inflation moved below the 2% target.

We expect the policy rate to fall to 2.50% by the spring of next year. This morning’s 50 bp cut reinforces speculation of another 50 bp move in December. However, the Bank will likely need to see continued weak economic data and low inflation to prompt another big move. Wage growth remains stubbornly strong, and there might be some lingering concern about reigniting the housing market, especially with mortgage insurance rules poised to change on December 15.

However, the Bank pointed out that lower rates will trigger a rebound in the housing market. According to the Monetary Policy Report (MPR), “Resales and renovations are anticipated to recover as interest rates decline. Renovations should also be supported by a projected rise in house prices. Recent changes to government mortgage insurance rules are expected to bolster housing demand. Although population growth should ease, the level of demand is expected to remain robust and support new construction. Lower interest rates may also facilitate some increase in housing supply by easing financing costs. However, constraints on the amount of land available for new homes, zoning restrictions and a lack of skilled labour are expected to limit the pace of construction, particularly over the near term. As a result, growth in housing demand is expected to outpace increases in supply. Unlike other sectors of the economy that are experiencing excess supply, the housing market is projected to remain tight. House prices are expected to rise, but the pace of increases will likely be restrained because some home buyers will face affordability challenges”.

Effective tomorrow, the prime rate will fall to 5.95%, lowering floating-rate mortgage rates. According to Mortgage Logic News, the lowest nationally advertised 5-year fixed rate is down 10 bps this week to 4.09%.

In its policy statement, the Governing Council reduced its forecast for growth in the second half of this year to 1.75%. Third-quarter GDP growth was revised to 1.5% from 2.8% in the July MPR. Inflation has improved faster than expected, ending the year at 2.1%, with core inflation at 2.3% and falling further in 2025.

Bottom Line

Today’s action is great news for the Canadian economy and housing activity. Market participants are now expecting home resales to pick up sharply in the first quarter of next year. The coming spring housing season should be robust, boosting sales and prices.

Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres
drsherrycooper@dominionlending.ca

Copyright © 2024 Dominion Lending Centres, All rights reserved.

17 May

RESIDENTIAL MARKET UPDATE

Real Estate Market Update

Posted by: Adriaan Driessen

 

Homebuyers Cautious As New Listings Surge In April
The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) announced today that national home sales dipped in April 2024 from its prior month, as the number of properties available for sale rose sharply to kick off the spring housing market.

Home sales activity recorded over Canadian MLS® Systems fell 1.7% between March and April 2024, a little below the average of the last ten years.

New Listings

The number of newly listed properties rose 2.8% month-over-month.

Slower sales amid more new listings resulted in a 6.5% jump in the overall number of properties on the market, reaching its highest level just before the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. It was also one of the largest month-over-month gains, second only to those seen during the sharp market slowdown of early 2022.

“April 2023 was characterized by a surge of buyers re-entering a market with new listings at 20-year lows, whereas this spring thus far has been the opposite, with a healthier number of properties to choose from but less enthusiasm on the demand side,” said Shaun Cathcart, CREA’s Senior Economist.

Bottom Line

With sales down and new listings up in April, the national sales-to-new listings ratio eased to 53.4%. The long-term average for the national sales-to-new listings ratio is 55%. A sales-to-new listings ratio between 45% and 65% is generally consistent with balanced housing market conditions, with readings above and below this range indicating sellers’ and buyers’ markets, respectively.

There were 4.2 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of April 2024, up from 3.9 months at the end of March and the highest level since the onset of the pandemic. The long-term average is about five months of inventory.

“After a long hibernation, the spring market is now officially underway. The increase in listings is resulting in the most balanced market conditions we’ve seen at the national level since before the pandemic,” said James Mabey, newly appointed Chair of CREA’s 2024-2025 Board of Directors. “Mortgage rates are still high, and it remains difficult for many people to break into the market, but for those who can, it’s the first spring market in some time where they can shop around, take their time and exercise some bargaining power. Given how much demand is out there, it’s hard to say how long it will last.

The upcoming CPI data for April, released on May 21, will be crucial for the Bank of Canada. Given the strength in the April jobs report, the Bank is likely to hold off cutting interest rates until July.

Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres
drsherrycooper@dominionlending.ca

12 Mar

RESIDENTIAL MARKET UPDATE Dr. Sherry Cooper Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres drsherrycooper@dominionlending.ca

Real Estate Market Update

Posted by: Adriaan Driessen

 

 

The Bank of Canada Holds Rates Steady Until Core Inflation Falls Further

Today (March 6, 2024), the Bank of Canada held the overnight rate at 5% for the fifth consecutive meeting and pledged to continue normalizing the Bank’s balance sheet. Policymakers remain concerned about risks to the outlook for inflation. The latest data show that CPI inflation fell to 2.9% in January, but year-over-year and three-month measures of core inflation were in the 3% to 3.5% range. The Governing Council projects that inflation will remain around 3% over the first half of this year but also suggests that wage pressure may be diminishing. The likelihood is that inflation will slow more rapidly, allowing for a rate cut by mid-year. 

The Bank also noted that Q4 GDP growth came in stronger than expected at 1.0% but was well below potential growth, confirming excess supply in the economy.

Employment continues to rise more slowly than population growth. During the press conference, Governor Macklem said it was too early to consider lowering rates as more time is needed to ensure inflation falls towards the 2% target.

Bottom Line

The Bank of Canada expects that progress on inflation will be ‘gradual and uneven.’ “Today’s decision reflects the governing council’s assessment that a policy rate of 5% remains appropriate. It’s still too early to consider lowering the policy interest rate,” Macklem said in the prepared text of his opening statement. The Bank is pushing back on the idea that rate cuts are imminent.

High interest rates are dampening discretionary spending for households renewing mortgages at much higher monthly payments. As the economy slows in the first half of this year, the BoC will signal a shift towards easing. This could happen at the next meeting on April 10, when policymakers update their economic projections. This could prepare markets for a June rate cut.

“We don’t want to keep monetary policy this restrictive longer than we have to,” Macklem said. “But nor do we want to jeopardize the progress we’ve made in bringing down inflation.

Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres
drsherrycooper@dominionlending.ca

20 Apr

Residential Market Update

Real Estate Market Update

Posted by: Adriaan Driessen

Canadian March Home Sales Posted Their Biggest Decline Since June

Statistics released today by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) show that rising interest rates were already dampening housing activity well before the Bank of Canada’s jumbo spike in the key policy rate in mid-April. National home sales fell back by 5.4% on a month-over-month basis in March. The decline puts activity back in line with where it had been since last fall (see chart below).

New Listings

The number of newly listed homes fell back by 5.5% on a month-over-month basis in March, following a jump in February. The monthly decline was led by Greater Vancouver, the Fraser Valley, Calgary and the GTA.

With sales and new listings falling in equal measure in March, the sales-to-new listings ratio stayed at 75.3% compared to 75.2% in February. The long-term average for the national sales-to-new listings ratio is 55.1%.

About two-thirds of local markets were seller’s markets based on the sales-to-new listings ratio is more than one standard deviation above its long-term mean in March 2022. The other third of local markets were in balanced market territory.

There were 1.8 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of March 2022 — up from a record-low of just 1.6 months in the previous three months. The long-term average for this measure is more than five months.

Home Prices

The Aggregate Composite MLS® HPI was up 1% on a month-over-month basis in March 2022 – a marked slowdown from the record 3.5% increase in February.

The non-seasonally adjusted Aggregate Composite MLS® HPI was up by 27.1% on a year-over-year basis in March. The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average home price was $796,000 in March 2022, up 11.2% from last year’s same month.

Bottom Line

The March housing report is ancient history, as sharp increases in market-driven interest rates have changed the fundamentals. This report also precedes the 50 basis point hike in the overnight policy rate by the Bank of Canada. Anecdotal evidence thus far in April suggests that new listings have risen, and multiple bidding has nearly disappeared.

The rise in current fixed mortgage rates means that homebuyers must qualify for uninsured mortgages at the offered mortgage rate plus 200 bps–above the 5.25% qualifying rate in place since June 2021. This, no doubt will squeeze some buyers out of higher-priced markets. 

The federal budget introduced some initiatives to help first-time homebuyers and encourage housing construction–but these measures are hitting roadblocks. Labour shortages are plaguing the construction industry, and the feds do not control zoning and planning restrictions but at the local government level. The ban on foreign resident purchases will likely have only a small impact, so the fundamental issue of a housing shortage remains the biggest impediment to more affordable housing in Canada.

Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres
drsherrycooper@dominionlending.ca

13 Apr

Residential Market Update

Real Estate Market Update

Posted by: Adriaan Driessen

Bank of Canada Hikes Rates by 50 BPs, Signalling More To Come

The Governing Council of the Bank of Canada raised the overnight policy rate by a full 50 basis points for the first time in 22 years. This was a widely telegraphed action that will be followed by the US Federal Reserve next month. While the BoC was the first G-7 central bank to take such aggressive action, the Bank of New Zealand also hiked rates today by half a percentage point. Considering the surge in inflation and the strength of the Canadian economy, another jumbo rate hike may well be in the cards.

The Bank now realizes that inflation is coming, not just from supply disruptions but also from excessive demand. “In Canada, Growth is strong, and the economy is moving into excess demand. Labour markets are tight, and wage growth is back to its pre-pandemic pace and rising. Businesses increasingly report they are having difficulty meeting demand, and are able to pass on higher input costs by increasing prices.”

The Bank now says that “Growth looks to have been stronger in the first quarter than projected in January and is likely to pick up in the second quarter. Consumer spending is strengthening with the lifting of pandemic containment measures. Exports and business investment will continue to recover, supported by strong foreign demand and high commodity prices. Housing market activity, which has been exceptionally high, is expected to moderate”.

The Governing Council has, once again, revised up its inflation forecast. CPI inflation is now expected to average almost 6% in the first half of 2022 and remain well above the control range throughout this year. It is then expected to ease to about 2½% in the second half of 2023 and return to the 2% target in 2024. There is an increasing risk that expectations of elevated inflation could become entrenched. 

With the economy moving into excess demand and inflation persisting well above target, the Governing Council judges that interest rates will need to rise further. The Bank is also ending reinvestment and will begin quantitative tightening (QT), effective April 25. Maturing Government of Canada bonds on the Bank’s balance sheet will no longer be replaced, and, as a result, the balance sheet size will decline over time. This will put further upward pressure on interest rates further out the yield curve.

Bottom Line

Traders are betting that the overnight rate will approach 3.0% one year from today. In today’s Monetary Policy Report (MPR), the Bank revised upward its estimate of the neutral overnight rate to a range of 2.0% to 3.0%–up 25 bps from their estimate one year ago. This is the Bank’s estimate of the overnight rate that is consistent with the noninflationary potential growth rate of the economy.

The rise in interest rates has already shown signs of slowing the Canadian housing market. The MPR states that “Resales are expected to soften somewhat in the second quarter as borrowing rates rise. Low levels of both builders’ inventories and existing homes for sale should support new construction and renovations in the near term”.

Bond yields have risen in anticipation of the Bank of Canada’s move taking the five-year fixed mortgage rate up to between 3.5% and 4%. This could be a pivotal time, as mortgage borrowers must qualify for loans at the maximum of 5.25% or 2 percentage points above the offered contract rate. We are now beyond the  2 ppts threshold, which reduces the buying power of many.

Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres
drsherrycooper@dominionlending.ca

 

2 Mar

Real Estate Market Update

Posted by: Adriaan Driessen

 

 

Bank of Canada Starts Hiking Rates, Signalling More To Come

The Governing Council of the Bank of Canada raised the overnight policy rate target by a quarter percentage point in a widely expected move and signalled that more hikes would be coming. This is the first rate hike since 2018. In a cautious stance, the Bank announced it was continuing the reinvestment phase, keeping its overall Government of Canada bonds holdings on its balance sheet roughly stable.

The Bank’s press release highlighted the major new source of uncertainty provided by the unprovoked invasion of Ukraine by Russia and suggested that it is a new source of substantial inflation pressure. Prices for oil, metals, wheat and other grains have skyrocketed recently. Moreover, this geopolitical distention negatively impacts confidence worldwide and adds new supply disruptions that dampen growth. “Financial market volatility has increased. The situation remains fluid, and we are following events closely.

“The Bank commented that economies have emerged from the impact of the Omicron variant more quickly than expected. Demand is robust, particularly in the US.

“Economic growth in Canada was very strong in the fourth quarter of last year at 6.7%. This is stronger than the Bank’s projection and confirms its view that economic slack has been absorbed. Both exports and imports have picked up, consistent with solid global demand. In January, Canada’s labour market recovery suffered a setback due to the Omicron variant, with temporary layoffs in service sectors and elevated employee absenteeism. However, the rebound from Omicron now appears to be well in train: household spending is proving resilient and should strengthen further with the lifting of public health restrictions. Housing market activity is more elevated, adding further pressure to house prices. Overall, first-quarter growth is now looking more solid than previously projected.

“Canadian CPI inflation has risen to 5.1%, as expected in January, well below the 7.5% level posted in the US.” Price increases have become more pervasive, and measures of core inflation have all risen. Poor harvests and higher transportation costs have pushed up food prices. The invasion of Ukraine is putting further upward pressure on prices for both energy and food-related commodities. All told, inflation is now expected to be higher in the near term than projected in January. Persistently elevated inflation increases the risk that longer-run inflation expectations could drift upwards. The Bank will use its monetary policy tools to return inflation to the 2% target and keep inflation expectations well-anchored.

“The final paragraph of the Bank’s press release speaks with great clarity: “The policy rate is the Bank’s primary monetary policy instrument. As the economy continues to expand and inflation pressures remain elevated, the Governing Council expects interest rates will need to rise further. The Governing Council will also be considering when to end the reinvestment phase and allow its holdings of Government of Canada bonds to begin to shrink. The resulting quantitative tightening (QT) would complement the policy interest rate increases. The timing and pace of further increases in the policy rate, and the start of QT, will be guided by the Bank’s ongoing assessment of the economy and its commitment to achieving the 2% inflation target.”

 

Bottom Line

The Bank of Canada has made a clear statement regarding the outlook for a normalization of interest rates. We expect a series of rate hikes over the next year. Expect another 25 basis point increase following the next meeting on April 13. The increased uncertainty and volatility arising from the war in Ukraine is front of mind worldwide. Still, it will not deter central banks from tightening monetary policy to forestall an embedded rise in inflation expectations. 

The Bank of Canada has postponed Quantitative Tightening, for now, a prudent move in the face of geopolitical uncertainty.

Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres
drsherrycooper@dominionlending.ca

1 Mar

Wanted: Home Sellers

Real Estate Market Update

Posted by: Adriaan Driessen

Housing affordability remains a huge political issue, and with the Department of Finance working on the upcoming budget, no doubt measures to reduce home prices will be front and center. With an election coming this spring in Ontario, Premier Ford’s Housing Affordability Task Force has made recommendations to step up homebuilding. Still, Ontario’s mayors are balking at some of their proposals. The task force report from the calls for “binding provincial action” to allow buildings up to four storeys tall and up to four units on a residential lot.

Ontario’s Big City Mayors group responded, saying, “unilateral actions, absent municipal input, may have unintended consequences that slow down development and reduce the community support needed to continue to sustainably add housing”.

“While overcoming Not In My Back Yard-ism is essential to success, so is respect for local decision-making and the democratic process”.  This is a roadblock to the aggressive and timely response.

We desperately need dramatic increases in new housing construction, which has been woefully constrained by local zoning, red tape and city planning issues. These are not under the auspices of the federal government. So instead, bandaid measures that do not directly address the fundamental issue of a housing shortage will likely be forthcoming in the spring federal budget.

Today the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) released statistics for January 2022 showing national existing-home sales rose edged higher on a month-over-month basis, constrained by limited supply. Excess demand pushed home prices up on the month by a record 2.9%, taking the year-over-year home price index up a record 28%.

Cliff Stevenson, Chair of CREA said, “The question is will that supply be overwhelmed by demand as it was last spring, or will we start to see the re-emergence of some of the many would-be sellers who have been hunkered down for the last two years?

“The ideal situation between now and the summer would be that a huge surge of sellers come forward looking to sell in the spring 2022 market,” said Shaun Cathcart, CREA’s Senior Economist. “If that were to occur, similar to 2021, we’d likely see a massive number of sales take place which would get a lot of frustrated buyers into homeownership, and we’d likely see some cooling off on the price growth side if those offers are spread across more listings. Those are all things this market needs. It really comes down to how many properties come up for sale in the months ahead”.

New Listings

In January, the number of newly listed homes dropped by a whopping 11% m/m, with a pullback in the GTA accounting for more than half of the national decline (chart 1 below).

With sales up a bit and new listings down by double-digits in January, the sales-to-new listings ratio shot to 89.4% compared to 78.7% in December (chart 2 below). This was the second-highest level on record for this measure, only slightly below the record 90.2% set last January. The long-term average for the national sales-to-new listings ratio is 55%.

A record 85% of local markets were seller’s markets based on the sales-to-new listings ratio is more than one standard deviation above its long-term mean in January 2022. The other 15% of local markets were in balanced market territory.

There were only1.6 months of inventory on a national basis at the end of January 2022 — tied with December 2021 for the lowest level ever recorded. The long-term average for this measure is a little over five months.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Home Prices

In line with the tightest market conditions ever recorded, the Aggregate Composite MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) was up a record 2.9% on a month-over-month basis in January 2022. The gains were similar to those recorded in the previous three months.

The non-seasonally adjusted Aggregate Composite MLS® HPI was up by a record 28% on a year-over-year basis in January.

Looking around the country, year-over-year price growth is in line with the national figure at 28% in B.C., though it remains lower in Vancouver, close to on par with the provincial number in Victoria, and higher in most other parts of the province.

Year-over-year price gains are still in the mid-to-high single digits in Alberta and Saskatchewan, while gains are running at about 13% in Manitoba.

Ontario saw year-over-year price growth remain above 30% in January, with the GTA having now caught up with the pace of provincial gains. The rest of the province is a mixed bag, up in between 25% and 40% on a year-over-year basis, save for Ottawa where prices are running at 16% year-over-year.

Greater Montreal’s year-over-year price growth remains at a little over 20%, while Quebec City was about half that.

Price growth is running above 30% in New Brunswick (higher in Greater Moncton, lower in Fredericton and Saint John), 27% on Prince Edward Island, and Newfoundland and Labrador is now at 12% year-over-year

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Bottom Line

While most developed countries have seen excess demand for housing over the past two years pushing home prices higher, Canada has the most significant housing shortage in the G7. This began in late 2015 when the federal government decided it would target the entry of much larger numbers of economic immigrants. Canada is “underpopulated” and celebrates a growing population, unlike many other countries. There are many job vacancies to be filled, and more people means more economic growth and prosperity for Canada.

But what the federal government forgot to do was provide housing for all new residents. Simply put, governments at all levels established no plan to provide any additional housing for all of these newcomers, let alone affordable housing.  Canada’s net migration rate is 6.375 per 1,000 people, the eighth-highest in the world. Approximately 1.8 million more people were calling Canada home in 2021 than five years earlier, with four in five of these having immigrated to Canada since 2016.

This is not rocket science. The government can blame foreign buyers or investors for our housing shortage, but inadequate planning and antiquated processes and policies are the real culprits.

Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres
drsherrycooper@dominionlending.ca
1 Mar

Inflation Ticked Up Again in January

Real Estate Market Update

Posted by: Adriaan Driessen

The CPI rose 5.1% from year-ago levels in January, driven by higher gasoline and car prices.

Published by Sherry Cooper                February 16, 2022

StatsCanada today reported that consumer price inflation rose to 5.1% from year-ago levels in January, compared to 4.8% in December. This was higher than expected but still well below US inflation posted at 7.5% for the same period. Undoubtedly, this puts additional pressure on the Bank of Canada to hike the overnight policy rate target in early March when it meets again, despite the disappointing jobs data last month. Even excluding gasoline, the CPI rose 4.3% y/y last month.

Shelter costs rose 6.2% year over year in January 2022, the fastest pace since February 1990. Higher prices for new homes contribute to higher costs associated with the upkeep of a property or the homeowners’ replacement cost. Higher home prices also tend to raise other owned accommodation expenses. In contrast, lower interest rates bring borrowing costs down—measured in the CPI through the mortgage interest cost index, which includes new and resale home prices.

The owned accommodation index, which measures the ongoing costs of homeownership, increased 6.1% year over year in January. Homeowners’ replacement cost (+13.5%) and other owned accommodation expenses (+14.0%), which includes commissions on the sale of real estate, put upward pressure on shelter prices amid rapid price growth in the housing market throughout the pandemic.

Conversely, mortgage interest costs fell 6.8% year over year in January, putting downward pressure on the shelter index.

Renters also saw a rise in prices, as the rented accommodation index increased 3.2% year over year, contributing to the higher shelter prices Canadians faced in January.

Another highly visible component of rising inflation was the surge in food prices. Shoppers paid more for groceries, as food prices from stores rose faster in January 2022 (+6.5%) than in December 2021 (+5.7%).

Prices for fresh or frozen beef (+13.0%), fresh or frozen chicken (+9.0%), and fresh or frozen fish (+7.9%) rose more in January 2022 compared with December 2021. Margarine (+16.5%) and condiments, spices, and kinds of vinegar (+12.1%) were also up compared with January 2021. Higher input prices and shipping costs because of ongoing supply chain disruptions have contributed to increased food prices. In addition to supply chain disruptions, unfavourable growing conditions have led to higher prices for fresh fruit (+8.2%) and bakery products (+7.4%).

Consumers paid more for alcohol in January 2022, as alcoholic beverages purchased from stores rose 2.9%, following a 1.6% gain in December 2021. Much of this increase stemmed from higher prices for both beer and wine, amid material shortages and increased shipping costs.

Bottom Line

Inflation has now exceeded the Bank of Canada’s 1% to 3% target band for 10 consecutive months. Other central banks have already begun to hike overnight rates from their effective lower bound of 25 basis points introduced in March 2020.

The U.S. Federal Reserve is preparing to raise interest rates in March, and last Friday’s jobs report fueled speculation it may need to move aggressively. The Bank of England just delivered back-to-back hikes, and some of its officials wanted to act even more forcefully. The Bank of Canada is set for liftoff next month. Even the European Central Bank may get in on the action later this year.

The recent trucker protests and border blockades have further disrupted the fragile auto supply chain. Wages in Canada rose 2.4% y/y, so Canadian households, on average, are seeing their purchasing power diminish.

Markets are pricing in as many as seven increases in borrowing costs over the next 12 months. While the Bank runs the risk of tightening too aggressively, there is little doubt that the emergency monetary easing has run its course.

2 Nov

Bank of Canada Responds To Mounting Inflation: Ends QE and Hastens Timing of Rate Hike

Mortgage Market Update

Posted by: Adriaan Driessen

In an aggressive response to the rise in inflation, the Bank of Canada issues a hawkish press release affirming it is ending its bond-buying program (quantitative easing–QE) and accelerating its plans for the first hike in the overnight rate to Q2 or Q3 of next year. This would be the Bank’s first rate hike since September 2018–well before the pandemic began.

The Bank of Canada surprised markets today with a more hawkish stance on inflation and the economy. The Bank released its widely anticipated October Monetary Policy Report (MPR) in which its key messages were:
The Canadian economy has accelerated robustly in the second half.
Labour markets have improved, especially in the hard-to-distance sectors. Despite continuing slack, many businesses can’t find appropriate workers quickly enough to meet demand.
Disruptions to global supply chains have worsened, limiting production and leading to both higher costs and higher prices.
The output gap is narrower than projected in July. The Bank now expects slack to be absorbed in Q2 or Q3 of next year, one quarter sooner than earlier projected.
Given persistent supply constraints and the increase in energy prices, the Bank expects inflation to stay above the control range for longer than previously anticipated before easing back to close to the 2 percent target by late 2022.
The Bank views the risks around this inflation outlook as roughly balanced.
In response to the Bank’s revised view, it announced that it is ending quantitative easing, shifting to the reinvestment phase, during which it will purchase Government of Canada bonds solely to replace maturing bonds. The Bank now owns about 45% of all outstanding GoC bonds.

The Bank today held its target for the overnight rate at the effective lower bound of 1/4 percent. While this was widely expected, the Bank adjusted its forward guidance. It moved up its guidance for the first hike in the overnight rate target by three months, from the second half of 2022 to the middle quarters–sometime between April and September.

Bottom Line

Since the Bank last met in early September, the Government of Canada five-year bond yield has spiked from .80% by a whopping 60 basis points to a 1.40%. That is an incredible 75% rise. A year ago, the five-year bond yield was only .37%.

The Bank believes the surge in inflation is transitory, but that does not mean it will be brief. CPI inflation was 4.4% y/y in September and is expected to rise and average around 4.75% over the remainder of this year. Macklem now believes inflation will remain above the Bank’s 1%-to-3% target band until late next year.

There is also a good deal of uncertainty about the size of the slack in the economy. This is always hard to measure, especially now when unemployment remains elevated at 6.9%, while sectors such as restaurants and retail are fraught with labour shortages. Structural changes in the labour force are afoot. Many former restaurant employees have moved on or are reluctant to return to jobs where virus contagion risks and poor working conditions. There was also a surge in early retirements during the pandemic and a dearth of new immigrants.

Concerning housing, the MPR says the following: “Housing market activity is anticipated to remain elevated over 2022 and 2023 after having moderated from recent record-high levels. Increased immigration, solid income levels and favourable financing conditions will support ongoing strength. New construction will add to the supply of houses and should help soften house price growth”.

Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres
drcooper@dominionlending.ca