20 Dec

The Canadian Housing Market Strengthens Further

Real Estate Market Update

Posted by: Adriaan Driessen

The Canadian Housing Market Strengthens Further
Home sales activity recorded over Canadian MLS® Systems rose again in November, building on October’s surprise jump.

Sales were up 2.8% m/m in November compared to October and now stand a cumulative 18.4% above where they were in May, just before the first interest rate cut in early June. Actual (not seasonally adjusted) monthly activity was 26% above November 2023.

The November increase was driven by gains in Greater Vancouver, Calgary, Greater Toronto, and Montreal and double-digit sales increases in smaller cities in Alberta and Ontario.

According to Shaun Cathcart, CREA’s Senior Economist, “Not only were sales up again but with market conditions now starting to tighten up, November also saw prices move materially higher at the national level for the first time in almost a year and a half. Normally, we might expect this market rebound to take a pause before resuming in the spring; however, the Bank of Canada’s latest 50-basis point cut together with a loosening of mortgage rules could mean a more active winter market than normal.”

New Listings

New listings edged down 0.5% month-over-month in November, building on a larger 3% decline in October. With sales also rising in November, the national sales-to-new listings ratio tightened to 59.2%, up from 57.3% in October. Between April and September this year, the measure had been in the 52% to 53% range. The long-term average for the national sales-to-new listings ratio is 55%, with a sales-to-new listings ratio between 45% and 65%, generally consistent with balanced housing market conditions.

“October and November marked the start of the long-awaited rebound in resale housing activity, with the combination of lower borrowing costs and more properties to choose from coaxing buyers off the sidelines,” said James Mabey, CREA Chair.

A little more than 160,000 properties were listed for sale on all Canadian MLS® Systems at the end of November 2024, up 8.9% from a year earlier but still below the long-term average for that time of the year of around 178,000 listings.

There were 3.7 months of inventory nationally at the end of November 2024, down from 3.8 months at the end of October and the lowest level in 14 months. The long-term average is 5.1 months of inventory, with a seller’s market below about 3.6 months and a buyer’s market above 6.5 months.

Home Prices

The non-seasonally adjusted National Composite MLS® HPI stood 1.2% below November 2023, the smallest decline since last April. The non-seasonally adjusted national average home price was $694,411 in November 2024, up 7.4% from November 2023.

Bottom Line

The Bank of Canada’s aggressive rate-cutting and regulatory changes that make housing somewhat more affordable have provided kindling for the Canadian housing market. While the conflagration isn’t likely to peak until spring, a seasonally strong period for housing, activity has already started to pick up. The November uptick in home prices could provide more impetus for potential buyers to move off the sidelines. The new housing initiatives go into effect today and tomorrow.

Debt-to-income ratios for Canadian households have improved as growth in disposable incomes continues to outpace borrowing. This bodes well for more robust residential real estate activity as the Bank of Canada continues to cut rates, albeit at a slower pace. We expect quarter-point rate cuts until the overnight rate, now at 3.25%, falls to 2.5% or even lower if US tariffs are introduced.

Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres

https://dominionlending.ca/economic-insights/canadian-home-sales-rose-again-in-november-as-new-listings-declined-and-prices-rose

16 Dec

New Mortgage Lending Rules for First-Time Home Buyers, Buyers of New Builds & Renewal Mortgages

Mortgage Market Update

Posted by: Adriaan Driessen

Regulatory changes applicable from December 15, 2024 by OSFI aimed at benefiting First Time Home Buyers, and Home Owners with mortgages Maturing for Re-Negotiation.

These updates reflect the federal government’s expanded eligibility criteria for for high-ratio insured mortgages allowing first time home buyers to purchase with less than 20% down payment, and are designed to help more Canadians achieve their dream of homeownership. In my opinion these rules will have limited impact to benefit home buyers, and is evidently more a political publicity stunt gearing up for coming elections. 

“The Liberal government is now panicking over housing because the Conservatives are owning the housing fight,” CIBC economist Benjamin Tal said during a recent talk. “Everybody realizes that housing is the number one file and will be determining who is going to govern after the next election,” he added. “There could be more moves coming in the fiscal update.”

Extended Amortization Options 

Maximum 30 year amortization (previously 25 year) will now be available for:

  • First-time homebuyers OR 
  • Borrowers that are purchasing a new build property.

* Property must be owner-occupied or occupied by a family member on a rent-free basis. 

First-time homebuyers are defined as:

  • A borrower that has never purchased a home before, OR 
  • A borrower that has not occupied a home as a principal residence that either they themselves or their current spouse or common-law partner owned in the last 4 years, OR 
  • A borrower who recently experienced the breakdown of a marriage or common-law partnership.

Increased Maximum Property Value 

The maximum purchase price for high-ratio insured mortgages (LTV greater than 80%) has increased to $1,499,999 (Previously $1 Million).

Please note downpayment requirements for the loan are as follows:

  • 5% down payment on the portion of a purchase price up to $500,000.
  • 10% down payment on the remainder of the lending value (i.e. purchase price between $500,000 and under $1,499,999).

Eligible Applications 

These changes apply to:

  • New applications on or after December 15th, 2024
  • Existing applications resubmitted to the insurer on or after December 15th, prior to full advancement of the loan
  • Both changes will apply to applicants requiring high-ratio mortgage insurance (required when purchasing with a loan-to-value greater than 80%).

 

Summary of Key changes:

30-year amortization for insured mortgages

Starting 30-year amortizations will be available for insured mortgages. This option is open to first-time homebuyers and those purchasing newly built homes, including condos.

Higher insured mortgage limits

Applications for insured mortgages will now be accepted for properties valued under $1.5 million, giving more buyers access to high-value homes with lower down payment requirements.

Renewal Mortgage Stress test simplification

Eligible insured transfers and switches will be qualified at the contract rate. Current stress test requirements will continue for insurable, uninsurable, and uninsured applications.

Benefits to You:

Reduced monthly payments

Extending amortizations to 30 years will lower monthly payments allowing higher affordability amidst rising living costs and fluctuating interest rates.  However increased amortization results in more interest paid over the life of the loan, and also a higher mortgage default insurance premium resulting in an increased cost of borrowing.

Expanded opportunities for buyers

Higher insured mortgage limits make it possible for more Canadians to purchase homes in competitive urban markets like Toronto and Vancouver. Reality however, very few first-time home buyers are purchasing close to or above $1 Million in purchase price.

More options at maturity

Qualifying at contract rate to transfer/switch your mortgage to a new lender to obtain better rates and lower payments, as opposed to having to qualify at higher benchmark rates under current lending rules to could force you to renew with your current lender if you don’t qualify. 

11 Dec

The Bank of Canada Cuts Its Policy Rate By Another 50 Basis Points

Mortgage Market Update

Posted by: Adriaan Driessen

The Surge In Canadian Unemployment Keeps Another Jumbo Rate Cut In Play In December
The BoC slashed the overnight rate by 50 bps this morning, bringing the policy rate down to 3.25%. The market had priced in nearly 90% odds of a 50 bp move, where consensus coalesced. The combined slower-than-expected GDP growth and a sharp rise in the Canadian unemployment rate to 6.8% triggered the Bank’s second consecutive jumbo rate cut. Today’s move will take the prime rate down 50 bps to 5.45% effective tomorrow, reducing floating rate mortgage loan rates by a half point, easing the cost of borrowing and reducing the monthly payment increase for renewals. This should spark housing activity, which accelerated in October and November.

The policy rate is now at the top of the estimated neutral rate range, 2.25% to 3.25%, with more moderate rate cuts continuing into next year. However, monetary policy remains restrictive, as the 3.25% policy rate is still 125 basis points above inflation, which has declined to roughly 2%, the Bank’s inflation target.

Economists have suggested that the tone of the central bank’s press release is more hawkish than before, unsurprising following two consecutive jumbo rate cuts. The Bank continues to say that its future decisions are data-dependent and will be impacted by policy measures taken by the government. In particular, the Bank highlighted the coming GST cuts, dispersal of bonus checks and the significant reduction in immigration. These developments have offsetting implications for inflation.

Governor Macklem signalled that he anticipated “a more gradual approach to monetary policy” in his press conference. We are forecasting 25 bp rate cuts through at least the first half of next year. That would take the overnight rate down to 2.5% by early June, a huge boost to housing that will likely enjoy a strong spring season.

Bottom Line

Monetary policy remains overly restrictive as the 3.75% overnight policy rate remains well above the inflation rate. We expect the overnight rate to fall to 2.5% by April or June of next year. This should continue boosting housing activity, which increased significantly in October and November.

Last week’s GDP data release showed that Canada’s third-quarter GDP grew a mere 1.0%, well below the Bank’s downwardly revised forecast of 1.5%. This, in combination with today’s employment report, bodes well for the Bank of Canada to consider cutting rates by another 50 bps seriously. However, given how aggressive they have been compared to the Federal Reserve, which will undoubtedly cut rates by only 25 bps in late December, they could be satisfied with a 25 bp cut for now.

Dr. Sherry Cooper
Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres

Access the full article here: https://dominionlending.ca/economic-insights/the-bank-of-canada-cuts-its-policy-rate-by-another-50-basis-points

5 Dec

LSTAR REAL ESTATE STATISTICS REPORT NOVEMBER 2024

Real Estate Market Update

Posted by: Adriaan Driessen

INTEREST RATE CUTS FUEL NOVEMBER REAL ESTATE MARKET INCREASE

In November, the average sale price in the real estate market was $640,198, reflecting a 5.9% increase compared to the same month last year. This rise in prices highlights the ongoing demand and value in the market. Sales activity also saw a significant boost, with 614 transactions, marking a 35.5% increase year-over-year. New listings saw a significant rise of 10.8% year-to-date, providing more options for buyers.

Kathy Amess, Chair of LSTAR, commented on these trends, saying, “The recent interest rate cuts have played a significant role in boosting market activity. Lower borrowing costs have made homeownership more accessible, driving up sales and expanding inventory. It’s encouraging to see such positive momentum, and we remain committed to working with all stakeholders to ensure a vibrant and affordable housing market for everyone.” Future expectations for interest rates in Canada suggest a potential for further reductions. The Bank of Canada has already implemented several rate cuts in 2024, bringing the policy rate down to 3.75% by October. These cuts are aimed at supporting economic growth and controlling inflation.

The table below displays November average prices and MLS® HPI Benchmark Prices in LSTAR’s main regions supplied by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA).

Area

November 2024 MLS®
HPI Benchmark Price

November 2024
Average Price

Central Elgin $641,900 $797,850
London East $485,500 $515,978
London North $714,300 $684,820
London South $613,500 $639,990
Middlesex Centre $878,000 $1,131,763
St. Thomas $557,100 $565,269
Strathroy-Caradoc $804,800 $639,863
LSTAR $612,100 $640,198

The HPI benchmark price reflects the value of a “typical home” as assigned by buyers in a certain area based on various housing attributes, while the average sales price is calculated by adding all the sale prices for homes sold and dividing that total by the number of homes sold. The HPI benchmark price is helpful to gauge trends over time since averages may fluctuate by changes in the mix of sales activity from one month to the next.

The following table displays November benchmark prices for all housing types within LSTAR’s jurisdiction and shows how they compare with those recorded in the previous month and three months ago.

MLS® Home Price Index Benchmark Prices

Benchmark Type November 2024 Change Over 
October 2024
Change Over
August 2024
LSTAR Composite $612,100 ↑0.6% ↓1.8%
LSTAR Single-Family $636,100 ↑1.2% ↓0.9%
LSTAR One Storey $595,400 ↑1.9% ↑0.2%
LSTAR Two Storey $718,300 ↑0.8% ↓1.3%
LSTAR Townhouse $492,200 ↑1.0% ↓3.5%
LSTAR Apartment $373,700 ↓9.4% ↓12.6%

The real estate market in November showed several positive trends across different property types. The composite benchmark price reached $612,100, reflecting a steady 0.6% increase. Single-family homes saw a notable rise to $663,100, up by 1.2%, while one-storey homes increased by 1.9% to $595,400. Two-storey homes also experienced growth, with prices climbing by 0.8% to $718,300. Townhouses maintained stability with a 1.0% increase, reaching $492,200. Despite a slight decrease in apartment prices, the overall market remains strong, showcasing resilience and adaptability.

The chart below shows the most recent HPI benchmark prices across Canada.

“London and St. Thomas continue to offer exceptional value in the Canadian real estate market. With a benchmark price of $612,100, our region remains one of the most affordable among major centers. This affordability, combined with our vibrant community and quality of life, makes London and St. Thomas an attractive destination for homebuyers. Compared to cities like Oakville-Milton at $1,215,800 and Greater Vancouver at $1,117,100, our market provides a more accessible entry point for families and individuals looking to invest in their future,” said Amess.

Working with a local realtor is crucial in navigating this competitive market. Local realtors have in-depth knowledge of the area, including neighborhood trends and pricing strategies, which can help buyers and sellers make informed decisions and maximize their investment potential.

According to a recent study1 by Altus Group, an average housing transaction in Ontario generated an average of $88,966 in spin-off spending per transaction from 2020 to 2022. These expenses include legal fees, appraisers, moving costs, new appliances, and home renovation expenses.

“The home sales in November potentially generated more than $54 million, reinforcing the economic engine of the business of real estate,” Amess said.

Employment resulting from home sales is also significant, according to the Altus study. Resale housing activity created an estimated 106,565 jobs annually in Ontario from 2020 to 2022. Jobs include manufacturing, construction, finance, and insurance.

https://www.lstar.ca/story/interest-rate-cuts-fuel-november-real-estate-market-increase